tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4210234642467046702.post534453136308956002..comments2018-03-20T03:33:40.858-07:00Comments on A Quant's Apology: Benchmark Solutions: Probably a Black Swan for the Corporate Bond MarketPeter Cottonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05565219939665267344noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4210234642467046702.post-29246751870478084792012-05-14T23:46:23.026-07:002012-05-14T23:46:23.026-07:00lol, your article reminds me some probability/meas...lol, your article reminds me some probability/measure theory..., the Kolmogorov's zero-one law. The black swan is a actually a probablity 1 event though seemingly not promising. <br /><br />I can give out a concrete black swan example from a math problem: consider a [0,1] uniformly distributed real random variable, what's the probability of its decimal representation not to contain digit 5? The astonishing answer is 1. People who doesn't know math will think we may exaggerate the result. <br /><br />Math tells us it's for sure. Black swan is not that astonishing.<br /><br />In the article, it seems that Dr. Cotton calculates that benchmark solutions has probability 1 to succeed to serve the the bond market. Right?Wentao Fanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18416818461431788858noreply@blogger.com